A semiparametric approach for modelling multivariate nonlinear time series

In this article, a semiparametric time‐varying nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model is proposed to model nonlinear vector time series data. We consider a combination of parametric and nonparametric estimation approaches to estimate the NVAR function for both independent and dependent errors. We use the multivariate Taylor series expansion of the link function up to the second order which has a parametric framework as a representation of the nonlinear vector regression function. After the unknown parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the obtained NVAR function is adjusted by a nonparametric diagonal matrix, where the proposed adjusted matrix is estimated by the nonparametric kernel estimator. The asymptotic consistency properties of the proposed estimators are established. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed semiparametric method. A real data example on short‐run interest rates and long‐run interest rates of United States Treasury securities is analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 668–687; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

A Blueprint for Full Collective Flood Risk Estimation: Demonstration for European River Flooding

Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio‐temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis. To overcome this limit, we move from the analysis of extreme events to the modeling of continuous stream flow records preserving spatio‐temporal correlation structures of the entire process, and making a more efficient use of the information provided by continuous flow records. The approach is based on the dynamic copula framework, which allows for splitting the modeling of spatio‐temporal properties by coupling suitable time series models accounting for temporal dynamics, and multivariate distributions describing spatial dependence. The model is applied to 490 stream flow sequences recorded across 10 of the largest river basins in central and eastern Europe (Danube, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Waser, Meuse, Rhone, Seine, Loire, and Garonne). Using available proxy data to quantify local flood exposure and vulnerability, we show that the temporal dependence exerts a key role in reproducing interannual persistence, and thus magnitude and frequency of annual proxy flood losses aggregated at a basin‐wide scale, while copulas allow the preservation of the spatial dependence of losses at weekly and annual time scales.     

乡村振兴的空间之维 ———基于福建土楼修缮的案例

乡村振兴绕不开空间维度.通过福建土楼修缮的个案分析,展现了物理空间 的修复过程以及由此引发的社会参与和乡村再组织化,在解决地方问题的同时,赋予了空间 新的文化活力.土楼修缮引起的连锁反应改变了乡村面貌,呈现了在空间形塑、主体实践、 文化势能机制下物理空间、社会空间、文化空间相互建构的动态过程,凸显了地方性、社会参 与和文化活化的关键作用.     

小卫星项目的法律适用和发展趋势

具有高功能密度的小卫星项目蓬勃发展，大大增强了私营实体和非航天大国参与空间活动的能力，引发了规则修订的需求。国家应建立空间活动的分级、分类许可条件，放宽小卫星行业的准入要求，并根据小卫星项目的目的、成本、收益和风险来设定第三者责任保险要求，规范小卫星的登记实践。空间碎片减缓应作为小卫星项目许可条件之一，以切实履行国家的外空环境保护责任。应简化国际电信联盟卫星频率和轨道位置协调程序，建立适应小卫星轨道特性、运行寿命和业务类型的管理规则。     

三河古镇空间肌理与情态浅析

以历史文化名镇三河古镇为研究对象，以历史资料与现场调研为依据，从自然历史形成因素出发，对三河古镇空间肌理进行分析，探讨古镇选址与布局、街巷格局、建筑风貌以及人文情态的基本特征，并针对三河古镇当前存在的空间氛围破坏、传统意境流失等问题提出若干对策，为恢复古镇昔日活力，更好地建设和营造现代人居环境提供一定的启发与借鉴。     

Overcoming Old in Age-Friendliness

In this article, we explore views on an age-friendly space in the Netherlands by analysing the responses of older individuals (N = 54) in focus groups and by examining the perspectives around an age-friendly zone in the Netherlands, Parkstad Limburg. We found that a central issue in the wishes for living at a later age are adjustments to envisioned physical limitations that come with the ageing process; this includes adjustments to ensure safety, accessibility and mobility, in order to facilitate older individuals' efforts to stay engaged with the world around them. In their wishes, the older participants constructed ideal dwelling places that closely resembled a senior home, but at the same time they rejected wishing to live in a place that was identified as a senior home. We explain this paradox by the representation of such a space as being for old people, i.e. needy older individuals, which was not how the older participants wished to be identified. We conclude that the conception of age-friendly environments will have to face the difficult challenge of overcoming the association with old age, while simultaneously taking into account adjustments that signify and relate to the ageing process and that seem inescapably tied to oldness.     

从空间构造论三岛由纪夫《潮骚》的主题建构

《潮骚》是三岛由纪夫描写唯美爱情故事的代表作。通过从叙事学角度对作品空间构造的分析可以看到，神社、灯塔分别以新治和初江为表象，具有对内与外的象征意义，同时体现出歌岛这个封闭空间的相对性。立体空间结构及若干对立关系的塑造和叙事视角的多角度转换使故事情节生动充实，既体现了作者对甜蜜爱情的赞美，也展示了故事深层所蕴含的主人公自我意识的觉醒，表现了三岛对理想之乡的向往和对现实的无奈。     

皖中与皖南村落空间结构及其成因的比较分析

目前对于安徽村落的研究，多停留在徽州村落的研究上，而皖中村落融合南北特点，形成别具一格的聚落形态，也具有很高的研究价值。文章从地理、历史、人文等方面探讨影响村落形成的因素，并用空间句法对皖中和皖南村落的结构进行分析，对比二者空间结构的不同，进而探讨其历史成因。     

赛珍珠《大地》叙事空间的置遣谫论

赛珍珠的《大地》虽然是用传统叙事写法创作的小说,但仍带有明显的叙事空间化的倾向,体现了时空维度的统一。小说以王龙一家所居村庄为基点空间,同时又设置了附近的城镇和南方大城市两个外缘空间。三大空间都具有表征人物性格、助推情节发展和突显主题思想等多种功能。三大空间都蕴含着地理、社会、文化、心理等方面因素,都由场域、场景和场面三个层次构成,并都表现出实在性、主体性和能动性三大特征。深厚的生活积累和谙熟中国小说写法是作者得以充分发挥空间叙事的长处并圆满完成故事讲述宗旨的决定性前提。     

Homosexual Discretion and Good Taste: Two Rules That Govern Homosexual Sociability Space in Santiago de Chile

Homosexual sociability space in Santiago is not socially homogenous. Beyond non-heterosexual identities segmentation (gay, lesbian, queer, BDSM, etc.), the present article proposes a reflection observing certain social distinctions or differences that come into play to create a hierarchy among gay and lesbian individuals within that space. Using a qualitative approximation, we analyze the discourse of homosexual men and women about ways to display homosexuality in different places in the city, as well as some sociability practices used in homosexual venues. The resulting social hierarchy is understood through two central subjective rules: discretion and good taste, dynamic mechanisms that perpetuate the distance among groups within the same sociability space, and to some extent reproduce the city’s class structure. Given that material means to privatize and sophisticate homosexual expression are unequally distributed in Santiago, the resulting differentiated social networks end up configuring the visibility strategies of homosexual identity played out in the city in the last years.